IBKR ForecastTrader participants generally expect a 3% annualized core reading in this Thursday’s release of the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which would mark the lowest figure in 47 months. Forecasters expecting hotter inflation have the option of buying the “Yes” answer for the IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking, “Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 3% in March 2025?” The “Yes” answer costs $0.39, corresponding to a 39% chance that the core CPI arrives at 3.1% or higher. Conversely, for folks that believe the indicator will print in-line or below Wall Street’s median estimate of 3%, the “No” answer is available at $0.59, pointing to a 59% probability that the Core CPI will be 3% or lower. Meanwhile, investors that want to initiate a bolder position that profits if the core CPI is less than projections, the “No” answer at the 2.9% threshold only costs $0.19 but will deliver a dollar on any number cooler than 3% this Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Source: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 8, 2025.
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I think the fed decision pt is hinged on pce than cpi. Let’s sew