My economic outlook for this year expects unemployment claims to increase at some point, but I don’t envision a sizeable weekly fall any time soon. Meanwhile, the data series has been particularly range bound and more specifically, has had a tendency of staying above 210,00 for quite some time. Indeed, initial unemployment claims have failed to exceed 210,000 just 5 times in the past 58 reports. Furthermore, the consensus estimate for this Thursday’s print is 224,000, a figure which is marginally in-line with its 12-month average of 225,000. The IBKR ForecastTrader question asking, “Will US Initial Jobless Claims exceed 210,000 for the week ending April 5, 2025,” offers the “Yes” answer at what I believe is an attractive $0.79, pointing to 79% odds that the report arrives ahead of 210,000. I like the “Yes” here, because a substantial decline is not likely in my opinion, but a sharp increase could occur in the near future, like in some recent previous weeks.
Source: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 7, 2025.
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